Will the Left Government Create History in Kerala?
Rebecca Rose Varghese
The Communist Party of India-Marxist [CPI(M)]-led Left Democratic Front’s (LDF) sweeping win in the local body elections this year was a morale booster for the ruling government, and foretells a clear edge for the incumbent in the upcoming Assembly elections. If the front could repeat its performance in the State Assembly elections scheduled to be held in May 2021, it will be a rare incident in the Kerala election history of a ruling alliance retaining power despite the conventional tendency of the Kerala voters to bring down an incumbent government. With the results of the Local Self Government (LSG) election now out, it is clear that the environment lacks any kind of anti-incumbency vibes and all that the LDF has to do is to keep up the momentum till the Assembly elections.
What led to victory of the Left front in the
LSG election?
With an exception in the 2010 local body elections, the LDF has always had an upper hand in local body elections, especially when it was in the Opposition. Even though the government was reeling under allegations, the election results point to the fact that the electorate has given more weightage to the performance of the government. The relief activities during the 2018 and 2019 floods, COVID-19 containment measures which received global attention, widening the scope (3.6 million beneficiaries) of the welfare pensions and its timely disbursal (Kerala Mission 2020), shelters provided through LIFE mission, provision of free food kits, among others might have turned the cards in favour of the Left front. Furthermore, the strong cadre system of the CPI(M), an efficient and strong leadership and the visible upper hand the party enjoys in various social media platforms including Facebook and Twitter also give the front an advantage over the other two fronts.
Other than the aforementioned factors, the inherent weakness of the United Democratic Front (UDF) has also helped the Left front in its electoral gains. Conflicts and lack of unity within the UDF, lack of a charismatic leader who could challenge someone like Pinarayi Vijayan and difference of opinion within the ranks of the Congress party and its leadership — which was very much visible during the months before the elections — also helped the LDF register a comfortable victory. Together with that, the shifting of minority votes, especially Muslim votes to the LDF and the exit of Kerala Congress (M) (KC(M)) from the UDF have also impacted the fortunes of the UDF. The move to build an alliance with radical organisations like the Welfare Party, and the over dependence on the Indian Union Muslim League (IUML) might have alienated the Christian minority, which is visible from the inroads the LDF had made in the districts of Kottayam and Ernakulam.
Before an analysis on the chances of the Left Government winning another term, it is important to look at few of the similarities the present Left Government and the 1991 Nayanar Government had, the latter being one of the few Left governments which was expected to win two consecutive Assembly elections despite the anti-incumbency factor (Isaac 1991).
There is, at present, an increase in communal politics with the emergence of the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP)-led NDA, a situation similar to the one that was present after the BJP-Hindu Munnani had gained prominence during the late 1980s, which led to the victory of the LDF (Isaac 1991, 2691). The conflict of the minority parties with the Congress-led UDF, due to its ineffective stance on national political issues like the implementation of the Citizen Amendment Act (CAA), has similarity with the Ayodhya controversy of the 1980s, when the Congress failed to take a stand in favour of the minority groups. Many pro-common man policies and acts like the Kerala Coir workers Welfare Fund Act (1987), the Kerala Khadi Workers' Welfare Fund Act (1989), The Kerala Abkari Workers Welfare Fund Act (1989), the Kerala Construction Workers' Welfare Fund Act (1989), etc were implemented by the government then, similar to the pension schemes and the welfare schemes implemented by the present LDF Government. And finally, one could say that despite the plethora of allegations, the present Chief Minister has managed to gain acceptance among the general public similar to the immense popularity Nayanar had among the people. Thus, there are quite a few similarities between the two governments, pointing to a favourable atmosphere for the Left Front in the next Assembly elections.
What are the chances of the LDF winning the 2021 Assembly elections?
Worldwide, a transition towards a Presidential mode of election is being witnessed where the electoral process revolves around a strong leader. Thus, without a strong leader to project as the Chief Ministerial candidate, the contest seems to be between Pinarayi Vijayan and the rest. With an overwhelming support for his stern leadership, despite the attack and allegations poured in by the media, the Opposition and also the Centre led by the BJP government, the chances of people supporting the Chief Minister seems to be high. And, the possibility of the voters looking beyond the anti-incumbency factor and supporting a government that works mainly on welfare schemes is visible from the local election results.
From the prevailing political environment, it is evident that the ruling front has an edge over the others and could be the first LDF government to retain power, but one must be cautious before making a conclusion, as there are many other factors that could impact the course of the State Assembly elections.
With the support of over 37 per cent of the total votes polled, the UDF still has a strong base in the State and if it manages a truce among the alliance partners and addresses the leadership crisis, it will be in a position to give a tough competition to the LDF in the coming elections.
Further, research suggests that the timing of campaigning, propagating one’s agendas and the issues that take place a few months before the elections have a large impact in deciding the political behaviour of voters (Panagopoulos 2011). One of the most important examples for this is the failure of the LDF to win the 1991 Assembly elections despite the overwhelming support it had received in the district polls only five months before the elections. It was the death of the then Prime Minister Rajiv Gandhi and the strategic move by the UDF to use sympathy over this unfortunate tragedy and the postponement of the election to June 1991 (Isaac 1991, 2700) that played an important role in helping the UDF win the elections. Thus, as it is difficult to predict the future of the Assembly elections, it would be interesting to analyse whether the LDF Government would be able to break the convention.
Rebecca Rose Varghese, Research Intern, Election Studies, CPPR. Views expressed by the author are personal and need not reflect or represent the views of Centre for Public Policy Research.
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References
- T. M. Thomas Isaac, and S. Mohana Kumar. 1991. “Kerala Elections, 1991: Lessons and Non Lessons.” Economic and Political Weekly 26, no. 47: 2691–2704. JSTOR, www.jstor.org/stable/4398338. Accessed December 22, 2020. https://www.jstor.org/stable/4398338
- Panagopoulos, Costas. 2011. “Timing Is Everything? Primacy and Recency Effects in Voter Mobilization Campaigns.” Political Behavior 33, no. 1: 79–93. JSTOR, www.jstor.org/stable/41488275. Accessed December 22, 2020. https://www.jstor.org/stable/41488275
- https://www.indiatoday.in/magazine/cover-story/story/19870415-red-letter-day-in-kerala-congressi-out-of-power-left-democratic-front-forms-govt-799835-1987-04-15
- https://ikm.gov.in/index.php/en/sevana-pension/215#:~:text=Kerala%20has%20the%20most%20comprehensive,benefited%20through%20different%20pension%20schemes
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