Some COVID Thoughts

By D Dhanuraj

A PDS Discussion (May 23)

One could see long queues these days not only in front of the BEVCO outlets but also in front of the Ration Shops (PDS). As a public policy researcher, I was curious to understand the reasons for such a long tail in front of these shops. I could see people come by car (even in premium cars) and two- wheelers and stand in the line holding an umbrella (it was drizzling at that time). I talked to a few and got a mixed response. Some of them believe that it is their right to buy ration when the provisions are given free by the government; some are not sure about their income in the coming months, hence, storing it in case of adverse situations; some people want to buy these provisions to acknowledge and thank Chief Minister and the Kerala Government for their excellent work; some think it is a superb work of the Prime Minister and the Union Government and so particular not to give room for the State machinery to sell them in the black market later; some others believe that nothing should be wasted when it is offered free. It was not a properly conducted survey but was based on spontaneous conversations. At the outset, these pictures give me some serious questions to ponder over in the next research. Are we stuck in a Paternal State syndrome in Kerala or is the so-called Kerala model a chimera? Is the economy bound to collapse with the growing State dependence?

Public Transport vs Private Vehicles Debate in Kerala (May 22)

We don't have any data to vet any of these.

1. Though we have completed two months of lockdown, there is no study in India/Kerala to understand how the virus transmits through the public transport (PT). At least in the beginning, some cases were reported when the PT was available.
2. Older adults can be quarantined if we think they would be vulnerable. Even in that case, we should also think about the elderly who depend on a daily wage.
3. By saying private is the choice over the public, the middle class is trying to secure themselves without realising that the poor and underprivileged are suffering a lot from such discrimination.
4. In the next few weeks, we can also assess how the virus is spread among the passengers who used trains or flights. There are many incidents of infections among those who arrived in Kerala in the last few days. We need to see what is the rate of infection (R0) in them and how many were infected because they were on board together at least for a few hours. Same could be the case with those who came by ship.
5. The science behind lockdowns and social distancing (I would rather call it physical distancing) globally. I believe a lot more research needs to be conducted to understand the way the virus spreads.
6. We follow what the West is trying to do. Unfortunately, they failed miserably, and I don't understand how it could be taken as a model here unless we conduct an in-depth study locally.
7. The incentive is not something imposed, rather based on the better and efficient utilisation of the resources by the users and producers. Here, I am not sure how much the State can decide and impose it while the cost and price discovery parts are not based on open and transparent information.
8. Total mortality in Kerala is 4/5 in three months. This shows there are some factors still not understood by us. Empirical evidence is also crucial as epidemiological pieces of evidence.
9. One of the reasons Kerala is safer so far is that we don't have cities like Mumbai or Ahmedabad. So naturally, the travel pattern is different here. The urban continuum of Kerala helps a lot in saving travel. So far, the studies were more about Private vs Public. But, the urban continuum has also resulted in less number of people travelling in public transport along with the tech-savvy Internet population and market-friendly service sector-oriented community.
10. We should trade-off the benefits and merits of the PT with the eco damages by private vehicles. I am sure more than four people are dying in Kerala every month because of respiratory illness.

Thoughts during Lockdown 4.0 (May 19)

When the lockdown (they say there is a considerable relaxation) enters into the 4th stage, these are some of my thoughts.

1. Many had protested and opposed Aadhaar for its privacy issues. Today, they are asking the government to transfer money to the poor using JAM. They are even fine with the privacy encroachment whether it is geo-tagging or geofencing.
2. Many had opposed e-commerce and online activities saying that it would kill the Kirana shops and small merchants. Today, they want online to be active, and the government is urging everyone to leverage online platforms.
3. Many were promoting the use of digital transactions post demonetisation. Many people at that time said that it is a corporate agenda. Today, the same people are asking us to use digital platforms to transact money. I believe those who oppose market innovations become their champions eventually. Of course, it could be a middle-class double standard often seen in the political economy.
4. How many have been denied access to health care because of coronavirus? How many would have died because of not getting treatment in time or how many patients would have self-administered medicines due to the fear of coronavirus?
5. What is the mental distress of the old and young due to the lockdown in India? What are the short- and long-term implications of this mental fatigue on their health? It varies from the upper-middle class to the poorest (remember pictures of the labourers walking to their homes).
6. Are we discussing and keeping a vigil on the coronavirus because of the high number of infections among the middle class and upper class in the western world? And, is it because we fear one of us (from the middle class and upper class) will be affected, comparing how other diseases have affected and killed the poor in the past?

Dr D Dhanuraj is Chairman, CPPR. Views expressed by the author are personal and need not reflect or represent the views of Centre for Public Policy Research.