Analysing the Exit Polls 2019

By Anupama Ghosh

(Image source: the quint)

The largest democratic exercise of the world came to an end with the voting in the seventh and the last phase of the General Elections on May 19. While the country awaits the results of the elections to be announced on May 23, the results of the various exit polls are out. 

Most of the exit polls predict an easy win for the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP)- led National Democratic Alliance (NDA). The veracity of the exit polls will only be known on May 23 when the results will be announced. However, there is no denying the fact that these poll predictions pose a number of serious questions for the major players of Indian polity — the larger national as well as prominent regional parties.

Congress — No Lessons Learnt?

The Grand Old Party of India crumbled to its lowest in the 2014 General Elections, when it managed to win only 44 seats. Marred by the corruption allegations during the regime of UPA II, followed by the dismal show in the 2014 elections had necessitated the Party to reinvent itself, in order to remain

politically consequential. 

Was the Congress able to do so? It does not seem that the party was able to take up the challenge to counter the narratives of the BJP in the following Assembly Elections. In these intermediate years, Congress did manage to give a scare to the BJP in Gujarat, and was also able to form a coalition in Karnataka. In late 2018, it was able to wrest Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh

from the BJP. Was that a revival for the Congress? The verdict is split on that question. One opinion is that the victory of the Congress was in reality, a vote against the BJP, especially due to the farmers’ distress. Even in Rajasthan and Madhya Pradesh, the party managed to scrape through to victory with a slim margin.

So, was the party ready for the 2019 challenge? It does not seem so. Even though the Congress came up with an election manifesto much before than the other major parties, it seems that it was lost in the din of the narratives of national security and the Balakot airstrikes.

Was the Opposition Viable?

The Samajwadi Party and the Bahujan Samaj Party formed an alliance to counter the BJP in the most electorally prominent state of Uttar Pradesh. The caste dynamics of Uttar Pradesh may make the alliance a formidable one, as pointed out by some of the exit polls as well. But its inability to bring the Congress into its fold resulted in a three-way contest in the state. This may only weaken the chances of the Mahagathbandhan, as the results of the exit polls stand right now.

The same was the case in neighbouring Delhi, where the Congress was unable to forge an alliance with the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP). After rounds of unceasing discussions, an alliance for seven seats could not be managed.

This shows the inability of the opposition parties to come forth to rise up to the challenge of the BJP and Prime Minister Narendra Modi. The election campaign did not see the emergence of a united opposition, but only a fractured group, which could come together if the need arises post May 23. This may have alienated the electorate more and put the election campaign of the BJP on a much stronger ground. In the face of such a fractured opposition without any narrative, the discourse of national security after the Balakot strikes may have struck a chord with the masses.

BJP — the Leadership Factor

The past few months have seen a rise of issues like farmers’ crisis, unemployment and a decline in economic growth to come up in the national discourse. The terrorist attack at Pulwama and the successive airstrikes at Balakot in February saw the BJP successfully shift the narrative from the

economic distress and unemployment to that of national security. In the face of the Congress manifesto consistently raking up the Rafale deal, the BJP remained steadfast on its talk of national security.

For many across the electorate spectrum, there is no alternative in the political milieu of the country, except Prime Minister Narendra Modi. While a lot of questions may be asked on the basis of employment opportunities, economic distress, the exit polls show that the electorate may not see any other viable alternative to take over the reins of the country.

The truth, if the exit polls are to be believed, is that the country has a leader on whose persona an election can be fought and maybe, even won. This can be a big lesson for the opposition parties, on how the elections are fought and maybe, even won.

(Anupama Ghosh is Senior Research Associate at CPPR. Views expressed by the author are personal and need not reflect or represent the views of Centre for Public Policy Research)