Awaiting MP assembly poll results: Will right alliances help INC out of exile?

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By Piyush Prakash Yadav

Image courtesy - Election Tamasha
The Madhya Pradesh Assembly Poll results is set to define the mood of the voters in the upcoming 2019 General Elections. Madhya Pradesh is mainly a bipolar contest between INC and BJP, but in recent times a few regional parties have come up with major vote banks in the state. MP has 90.89% Hindu population and majority of the voters voted for BJP because of its Hindu identity. The state which has more than half of the population engaged in agriculture is still heckled by agrarian issues, crime against women, unemployment, corruption etc. These issues have a major implication on people’s minds and may cause them to vote for a change of government. Making this assembly election very important for both BJP and Congress.

BJP has been ruling the state since 2003, winning the last three elections. The Congress on the other hand has been in exile for 15 years and desperately wants to make a comeback. Wining this election will help Congress increase their tally of Lok Sabha seats from single digit to double digit. Whereas it is important for BJP to retain 26 out of the 270 lok sabha seats from this state. So, keeping in view the general elections of 2019 they cannot afford to lose these elections.

The 2013 assembly elections of Madhya Pradesh saw a vote share of 44.88% for the BJP and 36.38% for the INC. This gap in the vote share can be easily contributed by BSP in the current polls. BSP performed well in the previous election in the state, securing a vote share of 6.29%. BSP has a stronghold in the Gird, Bundelkhand and Baghelkhand regions. It holds 4 seats and was a runner up in a dozen others. A BSP-INC alliance can help both the parties throw out the BJP. But BSP made it tough for INC by opting out of an alliance.

In the current state elections, many new parties entered the battleground representing some classes and communities. One of which is Jai Adivasi Yuva Shakti (JAYS) which has a strong presence in the Malwa region. Malwa region is the biggest and most important region of the state, having a strong presence of Scheduled Tribe voters. Majority in many constituencies can be lured by JAYS. Malwa region is also affected by many issues like agrarian issues and other events like Mandsaur incident. In order to claim victory in Madhya Pradesh, all the parties are focusing on this region. An INC-JAYS alliance would have helped INC to gain more seats in the region.

One of the major reasons for INC to lose votes is because they believe that they lack Hindu credentials which the party is focusing on now by applying soft Hindutva factor in their agenda. INC has ruled out of alliances with BSP and other parties because of seat sharing in the big leader areas. Their fear of losing presence in the region can become the ruling reason behind the loss of INC. These alliances could have paved the way for INC to achieve victory as they have the most number of big leaders in each area in the state. According to the Dainik Bhasker survey, approx. 55% of the population thinks that factionalism is the biggest challenge for Congress in order to win the election. INC’s soft Hindutva game may not after all become successful because of BJP’s hard Hindutva identity in the state.
(Views expressed by the author are personal and do not represent that of CPPR India)

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