Madhya Pradesh Assembly Polls 2018: BJP to maintain its winning streak

By Piyush Prakash Yadav

 Image courtesy - Times of India

"BJP’s strong vote bank in the urban constituency can help the party to retain their votes as the Modi factor maintains a great influence." 

Voters in Madhya Pradesh shall soon decide the political fate of the BJP and the Indian National Congress as the state goes to poll on November 28. This assembly poll will not only set the mood for 2019 but also help boost the winning party for the upcoming General Elections. It is quite vital for BJP to win the Madhya Pradesh assembly polls, as the party holds 26 out of 29 Lok Sabha constituencies. But, in order to win the general elections of 2019, BJP cannot afford to lose any seats in Madhya Pradesh, which has been one of its strongholds.

Even though Madhya Pradesh has been under BJP rule since 2003, with Shivraj Singh Chouhan leading the party since 2005, there seems to be no anti-incumbency factor. The BJP’s choice of the incumbent Shivraj Singh Chouhan as the Chief Ministerial candidate, over any other leader, is on account of the mass following this former school teacher has with vast sections of the populace. Although Congress has a couple of big leaders like Jyotiraditya Scindia, Kamal Nath and Digvijay Singh in the state, nobody enjoys the popularity that Shivraj Singh does. According to India Today’s political stock exchange, Shivraj Singh Chouhan’s popularity is intact at 48%, which is higher than anyone in the Congress, be it Scindia with 32%, Kamal Nath with 8% or Digvijay Singh at 2%.

The Congress party in MP has several big leaders from each region, like Jyotiraditya Scindia from Gird or Gwalior region, Kamal Nath from Mahakaushal, Digvijay Singh and Kantilal Bhuria from Malwa region, Ajay Singh from Baghelkhand, Arun Yadav from Nimar region, Suresh Pachouri from Bhopal or Madhya region and Satyavrat Chaturvedi in Bundelkhand. The presence of these big leaders in one state has led to factionalism in the party. According to a Dainik Bhaskar survey, approximately 55% of the population think that factionalism is the biggest challenge for the Congress in the state.

The grand old party which ruled the state for 30 years after independence is now facing a political crisis. In the 2013 election, Congress won only 6 urban constituencies out of 30. The winning margin of the BJP candidate increased in the urban constituencies as their election agenda became more focused on urban voters. Their election manifesto for 2018 promises to create 5 million jobs in 5 years, 1000 cr budget for creating self-employment opportunity for the youth, and develop global skill parks in Bhopal, Indore, Jabalpur and Gwalior. BJP hopes to ride high on popular sentiments based on these promises along with a Modi wave to retain their urban constituencies. They also hope that the Hindutva factor would also play a major role in attracting nearly 80 lakh new voters this time.

The electoral fortunes of the Congress had been dismal in the previous elections while the BJP was on a winning spree. In Bhopal, which is the home turf of CM Shivraj Singh, BJP holds 16 constituencies out of 19. BJP had won 14 seats by a margin of more than 10,000 votes. Nimar region is also critical for BJP in this election as they had performed very well in the previous election. Nimar has 23 constituencies out of which BJP holds 17 seats, of which 11 seats were won with a margin of more than 10,000 votes.

Although BJP is affected by many issues and movements inside the state, with good management during the elections they can succeed. BJP has many advantages in this election, one of which is CM Shivraj Singh Chouhan’s popularity among the masses. Factionalism and internal fights between the Congress leaders have gifted victory to BJP in previous elections and this is likely to repeat this year also. BJP’s strong vote bank in the urban constituency can help the party to retain their votes as the Modi factor maintains a great influence. Prime Minister Narendra Modi has been winning the hearts of the people in Madhya Pradesh with around 10 rallies and public meetings in every region of the state. Taking all this into consideration it is likely that the BJP will maintain its winning streak.

(Views expressed by the author are personal and do not represent that of CPPR India)