Saturday, March 29, 2014

Aam Admi Prime Minister: Scope and chances

by D. Dhanuraj

A few days are left before the first batch of voters to go to the polling booths to select their representatives of 16th Lok Sabha.  This time, unlike in the recent past, the most ferociously fought election with a multi cornered fight in many of them may go hay wire in the days to come.

If exit polls could be believed, Narendra Modi is marching ahead with meticulous strategies and belle- belle oratories. Modi camp had started preparations a few years ago for this most spectacular poll showing but the emergence of Aravind Kejriwal and his group had added a new dimension to the arithmetic of the final outcome. Even though many pollsters are confident of BJP crossing 190 of its own and winning over the alliance parties in the process, others are skeptical about this and BJPcrossing the threshold. Their prime concern is about the outreach of BJP at national level and how many of these States could be the best bet for them to march into Raisina Hills.

Apparently, BJPs plans are in the lines of gain maximum from the States like Karnataka, Madhya Pradesh, Maharashtra, Uttar Pradesh, Chattisgarh, Rajastan, Gujarat and Bihar. Altogether these States account for 287 seats.  Out of these States, they don’t expect to win more than 50 % from Maharashtra and Karnataka (together total 76 seats) and in UP, they trying their best to cross 55. In Bihar, it is going to be triangular contests in many and BJP-LJP may top the list with 18 to 20 seats. In other States, one can expect a decent show of around 80% of the seats go in the BJP way.  Thus it is going to be make or break situation for BJP in this round to reach the threshold of 190 to gain upper hand in the race.

This situation opens up the scenario for the every other political party leaders to dream high.

What are the possibilities if Modi couldn’t make it to the PM post?

Tantrums of Amma and Didi have been based on their ambitions. But the question is in the race for PM post,  how much they will dare to lose their control in their own states by giving way to another leader from their party by handing over Chief Ministership.  Furthermore,  they are shrewd politicians thinking aloud and are better in the bargaining and trade offs than climbing to lousy and clumsy deal to become PM of this country. I think they know their limitations and livability of their tenure with the support from within and outside the coalition. The only exception would be if Modi himself abstains from the race and propose these leaders to the post. Even then how long BJP will continue supporting them and how wishful Modi will be  thinking to prolong their innings are the muted questions here.

Other possibility is that of Alternate (Third front) coming to the power. It will be again Amma  or Didi as first choices. Though Left parties had a bizzare experience this time from the hands of Amma, they would be ready to support her but not Didi as it would be another political blunter they could commit. But the fact that Amma ceding powers to Paneer Selvam or Thampi Durai for sometime and returning to State from the post of PM to CM will be fall in grace especially for her. I don’t expect her to jump into the game unless she foresees some credible inclinations.

If Amma and Didi are ruled out, what are the other options; Netaji Mulayam will be stopped by Bahanji and vice versa for the obvious reasons. Then the next choice could be Sharad Pawar, a long time aspirant for the PM post. His maneuvers and skills would ideally suit him for the win over the others. Moreover, NCP has not followed any national principles to be a part of the alliances; with UPA in Delhi and with LDF in Kerala.  But it all depends on how many seats NCP is going to win in Maharashtra this time. Who else there to don the alternative if not Pawar?

Here comes the logic of seeing Aravind Kejriwal in PM post. Many polls predict AAP may cross 10 to 15 seats at the national level. In the case of There Is No Alternative (TINA) for the front of alternatives, Kejriwal could be the black horse in the race. By this time, everyone agrees that he could be the major challenge for Modi in his race and not Rahul Gandhi. Though I am not still sure about whose vote Kejriwal is going to eat in the coming days and who is going to benefit out of it, I am sure he has made a very impressive debut for the General Elections. He is a strategist and a man of improbabilities. From zero, he has made it to the CM of Delhi in less than `18 months. I am not surprised if Congress extends its support to Kejriwal without any hesitation.

If AAP wins more than ten seats and the Alternate front forms the Government, who is going to oppose Kejriwal to build consensus among fighting regional satraps. I too believe that such a Government may not last longer, but who cares for the stability in the pledge to keep the communal forces out of power. If such an uncanny situation arises, Aam Aadmi PM will rule this country for some time atleast. Who knows, whether Kejriwal can become the first ever person in Indian history to promote from CM to PM in the shortest span of time or not.